The Chaos Pendulum and The Ratchet

(Sounds like a sci-fi/fantasy short story, but it’s not.  It’s just a short blog post.)

Something struck me that has dampened my optimism somewhat.  I was thinking about the unsurprising resistance the administration’s health care ambitions have faced of late, but it occurred to me that even if I were interested in practicing medicine, and even if all of the administration’s proposals were defeated and free-market reforms enacted in their place, I would still not have the confidence to make medicine my career choice.  It’s abundantly clear that the majority thinks the liberty of doctors to practice as they and their patients jointly see fit is subject to their approval, whether or not they choose to exercise their authority.

This is part of a larger truth.  The visible gyrations of the political sphere are like those of a chaos pendulum.  Any given snapshot of activity can appear wild, frenetic, born as they are from interaction effects of prior vectors and momentum.  And yet, there is a regularity to this motion, a predictability, if not from moment to moment, then from decade to decade.  There is a limit to the extent of the movement, and a reach in one direction will be followed by a lurch to the other.

The chaos pendulum should not be ignored, as you may find yourself lifted, or walloped, by its beams.  And indeed, this is where everyone focuses their attention.

Meanwhile, a ratchet mechanism slowly advances, and a pawl prevents its retreat.  This is the ever-expanding public sphere, which subjects more and more of private life to the authority of all.  The effect of this ratchet is essentially invisible from moment to moment, miniscule compared to the gross movements of the chaos pendulum.  But its tiny motion is nothing less than the relocation of the chaos pendulum’s center of gravity, its equilibrium position, which even if never attained for more than an instant still directs its flow.

My suspicion of late is that the ratchet is only reset by revolution. There can be pro-liberty and anti-liberty revolutions, but empirically, gradualism and entropy favor the consolidation of power in the state.  (I am also coming to believe that this is related to where the arms are.)  Perhaps a rebellion can accomplish the reclamation of liberty without the need for total revolution.  Then again, total revolution might wind up being easier as the state collapses under its own weight.

I still maintain my optimism regarding (and my assessment of the value of reclaiming) the hearts and minds of the public, and this position has been borne out repeatedly in my own life in the last few months.  But I think those hearts and minds will need to power and direct some muscle.

I worry about the future.  As for tonight, I’m going to enjoy some plum gekkeikan and dark chocolate, and watch A Day At The Races with my six- and eight-year-old sons.